New Assumptions and the Resolution Foundation report

The Resolution Foundation produced a report a couple of weeks ago entitled "The Intergenerational Commission". You may have heard snippets from the main news on the proposed changes - to inheritance tax and the idea that retired people in work should continue to pay personal national insurance, being two of these. I thought it would be worth digging into the report a little more because you should know how taxes are likely to change, even if there is no 'Black Swan' event. Read more...

Be especially choosy with the securities in your UK allocation

Performance and productivity

In the UK, productivity has gone sideways since the 2007 crisis. The question is - can we use this to guide us as to what securities we should be buying in the UK?

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Wall St off 5%: an asset manager's viewpoint

Last night I was informed that the US market closed 4.5% down. Is it taking a nap, or ready to go to the vet?

The question I was considering this morning was- how will Wall Street start up again? In the past, Wall St.'s opening has taken note of what happened in the Far East, Europe and London in the previous 12 hours. Around 14:30 today is the point at which I'll know if it might keep on losing or turns around.  Read more...

Markets 2018

So, 'Happy New Year' and what do the markets look like for 2018? 'Edgy' is how I think about them. I think there's some growth to be had, and 2019 is my first year where I expect a fall in the US equity market. Read more...

Markets November 2017

Some clients made 3% last month. That's unusual, of course. I am used to seeing 1% and 0.5%. But I wasn't celebrating. Every morning when I see the markets have edged up I shake my head. There is no earnings underpin in the pricing. Buffett called the tech boom in 2000 "irrational exuberance". Today it is exuberant irrationallty. 

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Markets October 2017 - The UN Goes Gnarly

The UN Goes Gnarly

Looking around, you might observe that austerity should be ending any moment. If so, the United Nations disagrees with you:- Read more...

Markets Sep 2017

A 401k, in case you need a translation, is like an ISA

There was a large drop in the US market on Monday, perhaps you missed it. Some securities were down 5%, on sentiment. It looks as though the market's unhappiness from Trump's approach is starting to show. I got an email in from a planner in the USA recently saying that her and her husband had 'nothing in common' with Trump's policies. He does polarise people's emotions. The market is pretty hard-headed but what it is foreseeing is a riot of discontent. Read more...

Markets July 2017

Draghi and The Loop of Doom

As you probably have gathered I don't like writing this blog if I have nothing further to say. But there is some value in explaining what I have considered, even if there's no change.

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UK Election - the Worst Result Possible for UK large company equity

The UK hung Parliament is Worst Outcome for UK economy

Truth to tell, I was't mentally prepared for a hung Parliament. In terms of the upcoming Brexit negotiations this is weakness which the EU will pursue. Read more...

Markets June 2017

"Tonight's news suggests that the economic crisis in South Africa could reflect on its banks, such as Nedbank. Should we be worried?"

My American friend at Oxford University also has concerns, but not about South Africa. He says, in support of his choice to hold gold instead of cash:- Read more...

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